[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070924 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-071100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070924Z - 071100Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN IA AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO ADJACENT NWRN IL ATTM.  STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2
HOURS...BUT ATTM LONGEVITY OF THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS
THIS REGION AND ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST DVN /DAVENPORT IA/ WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG / SEVERE
STORMS -- PARTICULARLY IN SMALL N-S LINE NOW MOVING ACROSS SCOTT
COUNTY IA AND INTO ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IL.  AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTS N OF SURFACE FRONT NOW SITUATED ACROSS
CENTRAL IL / NRN MO...AND 25 TO 30 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT / UVV FOR STORM REGENERATION.

WITH 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTS STORM ORGANIZATION / ROTATION.  ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...62 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM MUSCATINE COUNTY
IA WITH SRN-MOST PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THIS CLUSTER
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SEWD PROPAGATION TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NEAR FRONT -- AND IF THIS SEWD DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE FURTHER.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

41459246 42479068 42418762 40828751 40829046 

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