[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070713 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-070815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NWRN PA / SWRN NY...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...

VALID 070713Z - 070815Z

THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUES WITH A OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO WW AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI...AND ACROSS LK ERIE ATTM GENERALLY N OF COLD FRONT.  MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WARM ADVECTION
APPARENTLY REMAINS SUFFICIENT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS -- TO ALLOW
CONTINUED STORM REGENERATION. 

NONETHELESS...GIVEN GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  UNLESS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY -- OR DEVELOP / MOVE INTO WARM
SECTOR WHERE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER -- WW WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT A REPLACEMENT WATCH.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

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