[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071138 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-071315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

VALID 071138Z - 071315Z

STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW 0153.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS AFFECTING
AREAS IN AND CLOSE TO WW ATTM...WITH STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING
GRUNDY AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES -- MOVING SEWD AT 40 TO 45 KT.

STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- OCCURRING JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT...WHERE AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPE IS INDICATED.  WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL AND ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1 TO 2 OF HOURS -- AT WHICH
TIME LEADING STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF WW.  NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM GIVEN ANTICIPATED CONTINUATION OF STORMS WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE / STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41569012 41608761 41228513 40478458 39838504 39888763
40439005 

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