[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070453 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-070630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA EWD INTO NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070453Z - 070630Z

DISCUSSION AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND
BECOME SUSTAINED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN IA NEWD THROUGH DSM INTO
E-CNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. STRENGTHENING LLJ OBSERVED ON REGIONAL
PROFILERS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS NWD/NEWD INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA IS
LIKELY ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM STJ TO ENEWD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO NRN IL N OF
PIA AS OF 04Z. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG LLJ JET AXIS ARE YIELDING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM
750-700MB WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

STRONG LATITUDINAL MID-LEVEL ISOTACH GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND
20-25KTS OVER SWRN IA TO 50-55KT OVER NERN IA INTO NRN IL. THUS...
IF ELEVATED STORMS CAN INDEED INITIATE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LIKELY...A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

41129462 42229405 42779201 42348934 41838840 41058878
40909058 40759214 40799407 

WWWW