[MCD] SWOMCD

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS11 KWNS 070305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070305 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-070430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH EWD INTO FAR WRN NY AND NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070305Z - 070430Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND WW WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR.

OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM WRN PORTIONS OF NY WWD INTO ERN/CNTRL LAKE ERIE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING /HEIGHT FALLS/ FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS
ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...ERN BRANCH OF WLY LLJ COUPLED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ARE LIKELY PROVIDING NECESSARY ASCENT TO SUSTAIN THE
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO NERN OH AND NWRN PA WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY /CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ EXISTS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

41748257 42348101 42847898 41727829 41157939 40688143
40638250 

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