[MCD] SWOMCD

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS11 KWNS 070137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070137 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI/NERN IND INTO NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070137Z - 070300Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0130Z...GRAND RAPIDS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING INVOF FRONT OVER CASS/ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES IN SWRN MI SWWD
INTO ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN N-CNTRL IND. PROXIMITY 00Z DTX RAOB
INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
EXISTS TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.

WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...
AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR BELOW MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME /OBSERVED IN THE
00Z DTX AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF STORMS
CAN CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
SHORTLY.

..MEAD.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

41858619 42248507 41948279 41108246 40998383 40878529
41058600 

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