[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292031 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-292300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/W-CENTRAL NEB...AND SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292031Z - 292300Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB/ERN NEB PANHANDLE...AND SWRN SD. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 

AT 20Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CU
HAVE INCREASED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SWRN SD/NWRN
NEB BORDER. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS DESTABILIZED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL.

DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...WITH 500MB RIDGE
IN PLACE...BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NWLY SFC-6M SHEAR
AROUND 30KT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
TO STRONGER CELLS...WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL.
WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /AROUND 30F/ MAY
RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

41080287 41710283 42270296 42980325 44120401 44480384
44260181 44170058 43530008 42949982 41639970 40939990
40780092 

WWWW