[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292354 
NEZ000-SDZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...W-CENTRAL NEB...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...

VALID 292354Z - 300100Z

WW 527 CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

AT 2335Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED FROM SRN SHANNON COUNTY SD SWD TO NEAR I-80 IN THE
NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY SWD/SEWD AROUND 5KT.

DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG...ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAS BEEN A HINDRANCE TO
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TO THIS POINT. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER INDICATES
30KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY
MAY NOT BECOME VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF INTENSITY
TRENDS DO NOT CHANGE...WW CANCELLATION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 4Z.

..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41090058 41080327 44010382 44020100 

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