[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292004 
MIZ000-WIZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292004Z - 292200Z

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
MIGRATING TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DULUTH MN INTO THE HOUGHTON LAKE MI AREA IS MAINTAINING  MID 50S DEW
POINTS...AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF
WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  

LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS
INCREASED IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER THROUGH THE 21-23Z
TIME FRAME.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 06/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46169040 46118935 45668827 45198686 45118597 44428407
42938264 43098465 44108839 44638964 44909094 45009187
45589103 

WWWW