[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290939 
OKZ000-TXZ000-291245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SW
OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 290939Z - 291245Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE FROM S-N ACROSS ROUGHLY 100
NM WIDE SWATH FROM SJT AREA NNEWD PAST CDS...TO I-40 AREA FROM CSM
WWD INTO ERN PANHANDLE.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF ONGOING
CLUSTER OVER COKE/TOM GREEN/IRION/STERLING COUNTIES TX AND MOVE
GENERALLY NWD...RESULTING IN TRAINING OF PRECIP CORES THAT MAY
PRODUCE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES.

MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT OVER TX/NM BORDER AREA
BETWEEN HOB-TCC...WITH PLUME OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO IS E -- ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  CORRIDOR
OF 20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER ANALYSIS FROM SJT
AREA NWD...CORRESPONDING WELL TO RUC PROGS OF MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...MIDLEVEL UVV AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THIS AREA. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MOIST FOR THIS REGION
WITH HIGH RH THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE...ROUGHLY 1.75 INCH PW...AND 850
MB DEW POINTS OF 15-16 DEG C.  DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 700-1000
J/KG IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WITH MINIMAL CINH.  THIS SUPPORTS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN AT
PRESENT...INCLUDING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

31590127 33500139 35270094 35349998 35329923 33749899
31809965 31190016 

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