[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281009 
ALZ000-MSZ000-281115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS AND WEST CENTRAL/NWRN
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281009Z - 281115Z

ELEVATED BOWING LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS INTO WEST CENTRAL/NWRN AL BETWEEN 10-13Z. 
DOWNSTREAM STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...THUS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT
0915Z...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY
AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS.  REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...EXTENDING FROM PONTOTOC COUNTY TO ATTALA COUNTY MS AT
10Z.  20-25 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPEARS TO BE FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED OVER ERN TX. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
PERSIST WITH AN EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-40 KT WITH THE MEAN WIND...AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS A LLJ INTO AND SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX. 
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE LOW...GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
DOWNSTREAM INTO AL ATTM...LIMITING THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER
WINDS.

HOWEVER...IF THIS COMPLEX MAINTAINS ITSELF AFTER THE ONSET OF
SURFACE HEATING...THE RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND
FORECAST WIND FIELD MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
MORNING.

..PETERS.. 06/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34248879 34288637 33668641 33118684 33118817 33168942
33668882 

WWWW