[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281758 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COASTAL AREAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281758Z - 282000Z

LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA HAS DRIED/STABILIZED...REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA REMAINS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.  HEATING OF THIS
WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  FURTHER
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG
OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.

DUE TO WARM/MOIST SOUNDINGS...HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...BUT HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT/LARGE CAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAIN CORES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.
 WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME WILL MINIMIZE OVERALL WIND THREAT...AND RISK
OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DECREASE AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS TO
COOL/STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

27409742 28239862 28969835 30799751 31169502 31899365
32119154 32499060 32438921 32158778 31978676 31248615
31078486 30808399 30068415 

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