[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280319 
TXZ000-NMZ000-280415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526...

VALID 280319Z - 280415Z

LARGE AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES DEVELOPING
SOUTH ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE WRN TX PNHDL LATE THIS EVENING.
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SUBSTANTIALLY DEEP COLD POOL WITH
STRONG NLY FLOW PER TCU PROFILER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE
RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION AND WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CHAVES COUNTY AND SRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY...AS WELL AS
INTO SRN BAILEY AND NRN COCHRAN COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL. DEEPER
ASCENT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z/10 PM MDT AS INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION BEGINS TO DAMPEN MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

32910494 34840488 35050232 32980213 

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