[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251708 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/CNTRL AND SRN NJ/MD/DE/AND NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251708Z - 251915Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. 
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY INTO THE VICINITY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER...
AS WELL AS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA.  LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND INHIBITION HAS BECOME
QUITE WEAK.

MODELS SUGGEST DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/SUBTROPICAL
JETS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MAIN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY THE 19-20Z...AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER
THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MODERATE TO
STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY.  THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ALREADY APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS...BEFORE BROADER SWATH OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS BECOMES
POSSIBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

..KERR.. 06/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

39657911 39847794 40047682 40237592 40667526 40597444
40067437 39587482 39207529 38577542 38247589 38127658
38417744 38887781 38977833 39187894 

WWWW