[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251634 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...NE NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251634Z - 251830Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...AND SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY SLOWLY EVOLVE SOUTH OF RICHMOND INTO THE
NORFOLK VA AREAS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.

WITH STRONGER SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS YET TO STRENGTHEN...BUT IS PROGGED TO DO SO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...WEAK VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
CONVECTION IS BECOMING ROOTED IN VERY MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS... CONTRIBUTING TO RISK FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOWER/MID-LEVELS MAY REMAIN UNSATURATED ENOUGH TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY ORGANIZES
THIS AFTERNOON.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...THIS MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

36307581 35847644 35937726 36187778 36207833 36727833
37137766 37537723 37917691 37997593 37847548 

WWWW