[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250005 
MOZ000-KSZ000-250130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN KS AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250005Z - 250130Z

ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE ESEWD
AROUND 30 KTS. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER JET ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
CONVERGENCE IN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM NCENTRAL
INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXIST OVER THE AREA. 25-30 KTS OF CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ROTATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39919761 39409933 38959866 38969757 38989659 38919545
38919394 38899236 39299146 39919154 40139209 39939585 

WWWW