[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN KS TO THE SOUTH OF DDC
APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL AND CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SWD INTO THE ERN OK
PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. 

AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDS
FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. SO FAR
STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING
AT ABOUT 25 MPH HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FLOW/BACKED SURFACE WINDS EVIDENT ON RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT WAS INCREASING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE TIED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SWD.
ADDITIONALLY...CELL MERGERS IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY AID
IN A DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL AND FURTHER SUPPORT A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE/NWRN OK.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36070122 36580108 37360053 37789934 37469897 37029878
36459894 35919964 35550060 

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