[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242059 
MSZ000-LAZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...

VALID 242059Z - 242300Z

INCREASING FORWARD MOTION ON THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL OVER SCENTRAL LA WILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SERN LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 20 N OF MSY EWD TO 10 N OF
GPT.

OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1
INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF WW 518 /SWRN AND
SCENTRAL MS/...WHERE TRAINING OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29479125 30139110 31389118 31778852 29918855