[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242004 
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...FAR SWRN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242004Z - 242130Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SEWD INTO
THE WRN/CENTRAL WY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH
THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS
SWRN MT/NERN ID. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BITTEROOT
MTNS OF ERN ID AND SWRN MT AND OVER THE WIND RIVER MTNS OF WRN WY
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST 25-40
KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR SOME SVR WIND
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEGREE AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THUS A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

41030815 41391070 43431314 44101319 44591256 45081122
44830963 42160686 41290637