[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241911 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IND / W CENTRAL INTO NRN OH / NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241911Z - 242045Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM WRN
IND NEWD INTO NWRN OH...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS NRN PA.  WE ARE
MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU NOW GROWING ACROSS
CENTRAL IND AND NWRN OH ALONG AND NEAR COLD FRONT.  WITH LOW TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION S OF FRONT...AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE -- WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW APPROACHING 500
J/KG.  ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP / INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.  

ALTHOUGH A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR IS ALIGNED ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WIND FIELD
NONETHELESS REMAINS STRONG / SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS
THIS REGION.  ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A FEW STORM CLUSTERS
CAN GENERATE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS.  SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG MORE N-S OUTFLOW SEGMENTS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIND
DAMAGE ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

40368719 39688659 39968305 41247976 42477908 42677932
41848183 40918533 

WWWW