[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241846 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO WRN KS/FAR SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241846Z - 242045Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG SWD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NCENTRAL/NERN KS INTO SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS MAY BECOME UNDERCUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF INITIATION
LIMITING THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. BUT IF A GREATER
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SWD AROUND 20-25 KTS PER
RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN SLOW SEWD STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KTS PER
REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS TREND
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THAT IS UNLESS NUMEROUS STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...FORM COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE FASTER THAN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO FAR SERN CO/THE OK PANHANDLE.

FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN KS...A MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX/THERMAL TROUGH SAMPLED BY THE 18Z MCCOOK
PROFILER...THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND ACCAS OVER NWRN KS...SHOULD AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED T-STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND MAY
SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO ORGANIZE.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

36470246 37890256 38830189 39400001 39559746 39629591
39169544 38549552 38299623 37749833 37299939 36570032
36500104 

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