[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241820 
NYZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241820Z - 241945Z

ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NY.  WE ARE MONITORING ONTARIO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE INTO
WRN NY BY 24/20Z.

PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN OH  / THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS NOW INDICATED ACROSS ALL BUT NRN NY. STRONG HEATING
CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS --
WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO FROM PETERBOROUGH
/ TORONTO ALONG THE NRN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NEWD ALONG
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY / MOVE EWD INTO NRN NY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WEAKER / CU-TYPE CONVECTION IS INDICATED ALONG
FRONT FROM WRN LK ONTARIO WSWWD ALONG THE NRN LK ERIE
SHORELINE...THIS TOO SHOULD INCREASE AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /500 TO 1000
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AT BEST/...STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD IS PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS.  STORM MODE -- PRIMARILY LINEAR VS.
PRIMARILY SUPERCELLULAR OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO -- IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.  ATTM...SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO APPEARS
PROBABLE -- WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY PERHAPS MORE CELLULAR BUT LONG
TERM EVOLUTION PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD LINEAR. IN ADDITION TO
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT
-- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

..GOSS.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44947424 44517432 43487483 42597794 42547919 42797891
43327905 43517904 43637717 44147639 44447578 44827533
45017483 

WWWW