[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241625 
MSZ000-LAZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA / SWRN MS...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241625Z - 241800Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR THIS REGION AS
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S/ ARE
INDICATED ACROSS SRN LA ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE IS INDICATED DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES.  BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS
INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND INTO SRN
MS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR.
 ERN PORTIONS OF LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF
CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD INTO SWRN LA ATTM...WHERE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OFFSHORE.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
LIMITED...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A LIMITED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WOULD
ALSO SEEM TO SUPPORT A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. 

WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST APPROACHING THE SABINE
RIVER...SOME MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED
WITHIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD
SWRN MS.  THEREFORE...RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30149305 30479259 31089235 31559114 31748950 31298910
29098897 29089080 29559163 29569266 29719303 

WWWW