[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240637 
MIZ000-INZ000-240730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517...

VALID 240637Z - 240730Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. HOWEVER...TREND HAS BEEN FOR THREAT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL. 

EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI
SWWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 45 KT AND
IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT STRONG
WIND GUSTS...THOUGH SUB SEVERE...ARE STILL REACHING THE SURFACE.
OTHER MORE CELLULAR...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF
THE LINE IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF 50 KT
SWLY FLOW IN THE .5-1 KM LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

..DIAL.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

42158628 42738463 44088326 43728234 42078272 41738599 

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