[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240310 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-240445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515...516...

VALID 240310Z - 240445Z

A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH A
LINE OF STORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SRN LOWER MI. WW 515 WILL
BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW.

A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS MUCH MORE STABLE
THAN THE LAND AREAS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CLUSTER. ACROSS LOWER
MI...OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS CAUSED SOME STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE WITH UPPER 50S F SFC
DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
OF 85 KT IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 KT PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN A
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.

..BROYLES.. 06/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

42668839 43668809 44468689 43318274 42438296 41748411
42418791 

WWWW