[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232145 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232145Z - 232345Z

ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WRN...CNTRL AND SRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NCNTRL MT EXTENDING
SEWD TO NEAR THE MT-SD STATE-LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG) CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE 500 MB FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY AT 40 TO 45 KT. THIS IS
CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SUGGESTING THE STRONGER
CELLS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0
C/KM WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 C WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. THE CELLS WILL MOVE SEWD AND MAY ALSO HAVE A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
EXCEED 30 DEGREES F.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX...

46180776 45580727 45060748 44540871 46671289 48571612
48891617 48941506 48951323 48651242 

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