[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232108 
AZZ000-232315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232108Z - 232315Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER SCENTRAL/SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
LIMITED THREAT EXPECTED SHOULD PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

REMNANT MCV OVER FAR SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NNWWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN RECENT MOTION ON WV IMAGERY. CONVECTION WAS
INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH-SE OF THE TUS AREA.
BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX VWP/S INDICATE AROUND 15-20 KTS OF ESELY MID
LEVEL FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER. THIS WILL AID IN WSWWD PROPAGATION
OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE WHITE MTNS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM
AND WRN PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200-500 J/KG. AS THIS
OCCURS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND
WRN COCHISE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY/DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN PIMA COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31821288 32471319 32891253 32911148 33361076 33550970
33020937 31340982 31341091 

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