[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231935 
TXZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231935Z - 232130Z

BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ON THE SRN/ERN
PERIPHERY OF MCV OVER SERN TX. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE
WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE HOU METRO AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

VWP DATA FROM HOU AND LATEST 18Z RUC DATA SUGGEST AXIS OF 10-15 KT
0-1 KM SHEAR EXISTS AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED 35 MILES NORTH OF
VICTORIA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE MCV MOVING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE
HOU METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DURATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
WINDS...WILL LIMIT A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

28769598 29239645 30279622 30899537 30469505 29269502
29089521 

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