[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231931 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MT / NWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231931Z - 232100Z

ISOLATED STRONG / SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT INTO
ADJACENT NRN WY...WHERE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ HAS RESULTED IN
AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  DESPITE THE LACK OF AN APPARENT /
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...WEAK NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
INDICATED ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
UPSLOPE-INDUCED UVV TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  

THIS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. 
HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...A LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THEREFORE...ATTM EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
AND THUS ONLY A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

..GOSS.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX...

49051074 48090842 47160810 46180577 45050736 43990843
44431178 46951349 49021686 

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