[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231603 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231603Z - 231730Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD
INTO SRN AL / WRN FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.  WEAK / BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS
INDICATED FROM S CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN LA ALONG APPARENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. 
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING
AND THUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEATING / FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MORNING RAOBS AND LATEST VWP DATA INDICATE
MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  WITH WBZ HEIGHTS FAIRLY
HIGH...HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.  ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND HIGH DEWPOINTS / LOW LCLS SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF / WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING
WINDS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN ANY MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GOSS.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

32598907 33298681 33008580 31868565 30208593 30188868
29068912 29049089 29639206 30719023 

WWWW