[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231517 
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / CENTRAL AND NRN MN / NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231517Z - 231715Z

THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS AREA
WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...AND WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN ND
ATTM...WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER INDICATED ACROSS ERN ND / NRN MN. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN ND AND INTO FAR NWRN MN ATTM.

VERY COLD /-20 TO -25C/ H5 TEMPERATURES ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
NWD RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED / WELL-DEFINED
VORT MAX MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN MANITOBA.

AS 50 TO 70 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA VORT
MAX -- SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE SLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH
TIME...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
ADDITIONALLY...SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAIRLY LOW
LCLS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46928994 44839185 45769641 47279975 49019808 49019514
49359512 49299483 48799462 48609385 48629286 48209210
48049151 48189081 47998953 47578920