[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222010 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA AND FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 222010Z - 222145Z

GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW
508 /OVER FAR ECENTRAL TX INTO NWRN LA/ WITH BOWING SEGMENT AS IT
MOVES NEWD AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. SEVERE THREAT MAY
PERSIST NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND THUS A NEW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE SABINE RIVER NEWD INTO FAR SRN AR ON THE WRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NRN LA...WITH LOWER 80S
TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S DEWPTS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NWRN LA WHERE BOWING SEGMENT AND STRONGEST
RISE/FALL COUPLET GRADIENT EXISTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE
MITIGATED FARTHER SOUTH BEYOND WW 508 EXPIRATION TIME /20Z/ AS
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO CENTRAL LA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THERFORE...IF AN ADDITIONAL
WW IF NEEDED WOULD ONLY BE FOR PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS WELL EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE.

..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

28979493 30219423 31249423 31679465 32239435 33039418
33349145 32439175 32149276 28849377 

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