[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222016 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN VA / ERN HALF OF MD / SERN PA /
SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

VALID 222016Z - 222145Z

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WW AREA.

LATEST RADAR INDICATES BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000
TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. ALTHOUGH SLOWLY INCREASING...STORMS
HAVE REMAINED LARGELY SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR.

GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION
AND MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT...SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS AHEAD
OF CONVECTIVE LINE.  

LIMITED STORM INTENSITY OBSERVED THUS FAR TODAY MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE
TO WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INDICATED BY
MODELS AND WV LOOP.  HOWEVER...THE ETA INDICATES THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS -- ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN QUEBEC TROUGH -- SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS
COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT
INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW AREA.

..GOSS.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

40307626 40467505 40127398 37337591 37067962 40387657