[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221926 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN ND...NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221926Z - 222100Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL ND WILL
PROGRESS SEWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND WCENTRAL
MN.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
NEED FOR WATCH.

AXIS OF MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM SCENTRAL ND INTO
WCENTRAL MN. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000
J/KG. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT COMBINED WITH AROUND
7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND
WCENTRAL MN. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT AND NEED FOR A WATCH.

..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45529837 45910033 46560081 47270097 47590049 47159765
46539539 45899523 45009567 

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