[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221757 
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...KY/NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221757Z - 222000Z

POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST RUC POINT
SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750
J/KG...OWING TO UPPER 70S/UPPER 60S SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
RESPECTIVELY. WITH REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND SHEAR /30-35 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. MARGINAL NATURE OF
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY MITIGATE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THUS WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

37938588 38278410 38508326 38218280 37188250 36918340
36598450 36558561 36418663 36658748 36968767 37308753
37478716 37758633 

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