[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221633 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TN INTO NRN MS/NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221633Z - 221800Z

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY POSE
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/HAIL THREAT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER A SEVERE WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

MODEST INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND
70...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES AND RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY ONLY
MARGINAL WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/ DOWNSTREAM OF THIS COMPLEX.

GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY/AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE
RATES...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/ MAY EXIST OWING TO PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COLD POOL AND/OR ANY ISOLD MULTICELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

..GUYER.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

35958979 36238810 36038582 35138536 34668562 33988621
33498760 33488852 33478990 33839058 35229020 

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