[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221608 
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MD / NRN AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221608Z - 221745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MD SWD ACROSS
NRN AND INTO WRN VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA / WV...BUT
CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION SWWD ACROSS VA. ALTHOUGH VEERED SWLY FLOW IS INDICATED
ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES / LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS -- WITH FRONT FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
MOVE / REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.  ALTHOUGH
WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME
DEGREE...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF THIS
REGION...MODERATELY STRONG / NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED / SEVERE. 
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST WIND THREAT
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION REGARDING TIMING
OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

40327678 40227536 37087774 37128057 38027964 40047830 

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