[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221527 
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-221730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / SRN AR / MUCH OF LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221527Z - 221730Z

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...THREAT MAY INCREASE TO THE DEGREE THAT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MCSS WITH ASSOCIATED MCVS -- ONE
ACROSS AR AND ONE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX ATTM.  E OF THE TX SYSTEM AND
S OF THE AR STORMS...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH MID TO UPPER
70S DEWPOINTS INDICATED.  THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 7 C/KM 700 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING RAOBS...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO
3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED/.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 25 KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PULSE / MULTICELL
STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. 
ADDITIONALLY -- GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / LOW LCLS ALONG
WITH AROUND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATED BY AREA VWPS /
PROFILERS...A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WOULD OCCUR IF
STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AHEAD OF ERN TX MCV / COLD POOL.

..GOSS.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...

33349438 33969284 33489182 32759137 31189157 29619213
29789365 28509650 30459601 31749628 

WWWW