[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211936 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / SERN OK / SWRN AR / NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211936Z - 212100Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST AIRMASS S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX AND VICINITY...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS
ALLOWED 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP.  

ALTHOUGH AREA VAD / VWP DATA INDICATES FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD -- PARTICULARLY FROM N CENTRAL TX WWD...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.  STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX ARE BEING RAPIDLY
UNDERCUT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL.  GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS APPEARS TO BE EWD INTO NERN TX / SERN AR WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS AND STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS RAPIDLY
UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW.

..GOSS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

33650008 33419867 33589639 34089471 34419366 33299269
32759401 32239658 31799972 31950050 32660130 

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