[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212221 
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212221Z - 212345Z

ALTHOUGH AMBIENT FLOW AND SHEAR FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK TO MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 0030Z OVER PORTIONS EASTLAND/BROWN COUNTIES
EWD PAST SEP AREA TO SWRN FRINGES DFW METROPLEX.  RISK APPEARS TOO
SHORT-LIVED AND SMALL IN AREA FOR WW.

REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND SFC MAP INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SSWWD 10-15 KT ATTM ACROSS JONES/SHACKELFORD/SRN STEPHENS/NERN
EASTLAND/NRN ERATH AND HOOD COUNTIES.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND INTERACT WITH N-S BAND OF TSTMS...WHICH WAS
MOVING EWD ROUGHLY 15 KT ACROSS CALLAHAN/COLEMAN COUNTIES AS OF 22Z.
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG RESULTANT
INTERSECTION.  STORM-SCALE LIFT/SHEAR ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD
SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THAN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST...GIVEN AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR
MASS.  VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL...BUT WITH STRONG VERTICAL
VEERING THROUGH LOWEST 4-5 KM AGL.  LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION
TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE ONCE STORMS GENERATE COLD POOLS.  MAIN
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

31529839 31489867 31489923 31589926 32079919 32419915
32509895 32389849 32439783 32459752 32229737 31749782 

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