[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211925 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / NERN NM / FAR SWRN KS / TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211925Z - 212100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / SPREAD ESEWD FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN CO / NERN NM INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SWRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH LOW JUST W OF AMA ATTM.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ESEWD ALONG / JUST S OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN CO...WITH CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED AS FAR S AS NERN NM
-- ALL WITHIN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS / ZONE ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW.  ALTHOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MORE CAPPED SEWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE...PERSISTENT LIFT INVOF LOW / SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING CAP / STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION --
PARTICULARLY TIMING WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARY -- AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / ROTATING
STORMS.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

38580501 38230389 37590175 37069880 34149948 33680104
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