[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211743 
MIZ000-WIZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI / NRN AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211743Z - 211915Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
FRONT FROM WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO W CENTRAL WI.  DESPITE LOCAL
THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED HEATING OCCURRING ALONG
SURFACE FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA TO N OF LSE /LA CROSSE WI/.  SHOWERS / A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ATTM...ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE /
INTENSITY.

WITH CLOUDS / SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO THE WRN AND
CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...WITH 40 TO 50 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WIND FIELD IS SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
REGION...AS FURTHER INSTABILITY WITHIN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46808895 47118761 46548551 43918787 43519047 44599221
45959096 

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