[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211724 
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NWRN MS / WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211724Z - 211900Z

THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY ALONG COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  HOWEVER...WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS SERN
AR / NWRN MS...WHERE AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS
INDICATED ATTM.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS AR...BUT LOW-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED BY MORNING LIT SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE
SUPPRESSED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SERN AR...WHERE HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS ALLOWED CAP TO WEAKEN.
 STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.

DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING ONLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AT
BEST.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.

ALTHOUGH WW IN NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  SHOULD THE STORMS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

..GOSS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

36669067 36888917 36098824 34398856 32919070 32789280
33059424 34089413 35419107 

WWWW