[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202308 
NEZ000-COZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CO...WRN KS...SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...501...

VALID 202308Z - 210115Z

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER CO FROM FOOTHILLS EWD
ALMOST TO KS BORDER...SOME OF WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KS OVER NEXT 2-3
HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELLS ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENTS IN THESE WWS...WITH 0-6
KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 45-60 KT.  SEVERAL CANDIDATES FOR
EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL MCS EXIST ATTM...
1. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO TOWARD MCK-GLD
CORRIDOR...
2. STORMS OVER PORTIONS PUEBLO/CROWLEY COUNTIES CO AS OF
23Z...EVOLVING INTO BOW ECHO AND MOVING TOWARD LHX/LAA CORRIDOR...
3. BROKEN ARC OF TSTMS FROM BACA COUNTY CO SWD INTO PORTIONS OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
4. NEWLY FORMING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WALLACE COUNTY KS SWWD
ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY CO.

FCST POSITION/ORIENTATION OF LLJ AFTER 00Z FAVORS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
CLOSEST TO WRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD
AROUND 3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...GID...DDC...AMA...

37000208 37000503 40990515 40990204 

36990208 40340232 40339969 37039942 

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