[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202248 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-KSZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 202248Z - 210015Z

SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS WW
500...AND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES E
OF WW. THEREFORE EITHER NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED BY
ABOUT 00Z.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM BETWEEN PUB-TAD SEWD TO NEAR
UNION/COLFAX COUNTY BORDER IN NM...THEN SSEWD TO NEAR CVS.  TSTMS
FORMING ALONG DRYLINE NEAR CVS...AND IN EXPANDING CLUSTER AHEAD OF
DRYLINE OVER DALLAM TX/CIMARRON OK COUNTIES...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL.WIND AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS.  LATTER ACTIVITY
COULD ORGANIZE INTO BOW ECHO AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS OK PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT ROW OF TX COUNTIES...AS IT MOVES INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM AND SFC DEW POINTS
MID 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MUCH OF
PANHANDLES.  ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT BUT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH 150-250 J/KG
SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER OK PANHANDLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...OUN...DDC...

34750321 37000502 36970187 34770021 

37000187 37000059 37009959 36509938 35979948 35259963
34750021 

WWWW