[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210139 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-210345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS NWRN AND
EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...

VALID 210139Z - 210345Z

THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SRN PORTION WW
-- ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 -- WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. 
HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FARTHER N -- BOTH
1. WITH ONGOING/SLIGHTLY BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND
2. POTENTIALLY WITH TAIL END OF SERN CO MCS MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN KS
TOWARD NERN OK PANHANDLE.
BY 6Z RUC REASONABLY FCSTS 45 KT 850 MB LLJ OVER NERN TX
PANHANDLE... WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THERE NEWD ACROSS
ERN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING PANHANDLES CONVECTION.  LLJ CAN
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY AS WELL...INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS TO CONTINUE AND BACKBUILD SWD SOMEWHAT
AND AFFECT NERN PORTIONS WW.  MODIFIED AMA/DDC RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE CAN BE MAINTAINED
JUST ABOVE DIABATICALLY COOLED SFC LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

34909944 34890311 37020197 37009830 

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