[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202230 
TXZ000-210130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX...INCLUDING PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER PECOS
VALLEY REGIONS.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 202230Z - 210130Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...MOVING SLOWLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.  ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT GREATER HAZARD WILL RESULT
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

CONVECTION NOW INCREASING BETWEEN ABI-LBB...TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM
NRN COAHUILA...AND CONVECTION S-SE OF MAF WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL INITIALLY.  OTHERWISE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CYCLONIC GYRE -- ASSOCIATED
WITH OLD MCV -- OVER CULBERSON COUNTY. EXPECT LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING TO ITS E. 
CAP IS WEAKENING WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S F IN SOME AREAS. 
MODIFIED MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE.  LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...I.E. ROUGHLY 10-15 KT...BUT IS SLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
WHERE 1.5 INCH PW ARE PRESENT. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW -- GIVEN
EXPECTED QUASISTATIONARY CELL MOTIONS AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAIN
RATES. BOTH RUC AND ETA REASONABLY INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THIS AREA BEFORE 06Z.

..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

29730260 30510290 31890268 32900237 33430163 33680083
33640045 33430007 33009985 32050032 31000092 29790158
29780173 29810182 29810193 29790200 29780212 29820215
29850219 29840222 29880227 29850233 29790235 29770240
29780246 29770250 

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