[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202213 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E-CENTRAL/SERN WY...SWRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202213Z - 210045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA -- FROM BLACK
HILLS REGION SSWWD TOWARD CO/WY/NEB BORDER CONFLUENCE...AND SHIFTING
SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB PANHANDLE.  OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING IF POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE CLUSTER OR MCS.

21Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN
WY...THROUGH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW LOCATED BETWEEN WRL-CPR...THEN ARCHING
SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS NIOBRARA/PLATTE/ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES.  MOIST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO SWRN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING.  WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
IS EVIDENT FROM SRN BLACK HILLS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB SANDHILLS TO
NEAR LBF -- CORRESPONDING WELL TO OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MLCAPE
GRADIENT OVER REGION.  POSSIBLE SUPERCELL ENTERING FALL RIVER COUNTY
SD AT 22Z SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY REACHING
WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT.  OTHER
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS S OF WARM FRONT WILL CROSS PORTIONS NEB
PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK PER LBF VWP
AND RUC SOUNDINGS...60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ROTATION.

..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

41030516 41190551 41550560 41840540 42160496 42680405
43420388 43840328 43560271 43190197 42590133 41850100
41270140 40990201 

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