[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202019 
WYZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-202215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WY/ERN ID/NW AND NCNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202019Z - 202215Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MODEST HEATING AND MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM ERN ID INTO
WY/NRN CO PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
BENEATH 40-45 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW /AS EVIDENT ON MEDICINE BOW
PROFILER AND LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS/ SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT WITH
MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD
LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO 8.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14C TO -18C.

MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH...

45191098 44860746 44250512 43660451 43030447 41820484
40460554 39900624 40180846 41411099 42811180 44261202
44781191 

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