[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202003 
NMZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202003Z - 202200Z

STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ERN NM AND SPREAD EWD
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN NE NM EXTENDING SSEWD
INTO W TX. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER NE NM. STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS IN SE NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NM SHOW WEAKLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
500 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. SFC OBS ACROSS ERN NM SHOW LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS IN PLACE. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

32380419 32410354 32800319 34500315 35740328 36300348
36930409 36890494 36540550 35660527 34840509 33500508
32840496 32480478